No rational person looks coldly at the economics of building a consumer brand and concludes that it is an obvious use of the next five to eight years of their life. You take on incumbents with deeper pockets, stronger distribution, better retailer relationships, lower production costs and more time. You raise money from people who have already seen versions of your category story many times before. You fight for consumer attention in categories where most people are not looking for another choice.

It’s no longer a question of whether the industry needs more innovation. It is whether the ecosystem has become too efficient at creating companies the market never needed in the first place.

The food and beverage industry has never been more efficient at creating new brands.

Let’s talk about a pattern I’ve seen play out time and time again. It’s the silent killer of early-stage food and beverage startups—especially the ones built around a strong founder vision.

It’s also the predominant reason why 93% of Food & Beverage startups eventually fail.

It goes something like this:

A founder has a lightbulb moment—usually on a beach, a hike, or some far-flung café—around a “game-changing” drink or snack. Inspired, they get home, call a co-manufacturer, and whip up a rough MVP. It’s unpolished, but it’s real.